Posted by In late 2023, The Economist described Ruaka, a fast-growing town on the edge of Nairobi, as a snapshot of African retail. Within a short walk you could find roadside stalls, small dukas and a mall anchored by an international hypermarket. Its point was that Africa was in the middle of a supermarket revolution, led less by global giants than by local chains that understood their customers.
Three years on, that story has sharpened. The local chains have kept growing, the global chains have had a much harder time, and informal retail still accounts for most of what Africans buy. For anyone supplying consumer goods on the continent, the winners and losers say a lot about how to build a route to market.
The rise of the local chains
Kenya shows the trend most clearly. Quickmart had about 25 stores in 2020. By 2026 it had more than 70 across 16 counties, many of them open 24 hours to serve shift workers and early commuters, and it was preparing to list on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Naivas, the market leader, reached 114 stores by March 2026 and is aiming for 200. Both have moved away from big destination malls towards neighbourhood centres in middle-income suburbs, closer to where people live and shop every day.
The same pattern is playing out elsewhere. In Egypt, the hard discounter Kazyon has grown to around 1,600 small stores across Egypt, Morocco and Saudi Arabia, with a limited range, prices below the market average and its own distribution centres and trucks. In Nigeria, Marketsquare opened its first store in Yenagoa in 2015 and now runs 41 stores in 19 cities, while the discount chain Bokku! Mart has passed 120 outlets.
What these chains have in common is a format built for local conditions: small to mid-sized stores, convenient locations, long opening hours, sharp prices on everyday essentials, and a willingness to start in secondary cities rather than only in the capital.
Why the global chains struggled
The contrast with the multinationals is stark. Shoprite, Africa’s largest grocer, spent 15 years in Nigeria and still had only around 25 stores when it sold the business to local investors in 2021. Under new ownership, shelves emptied and stores closed one by one, and by early 2026 the remaining outlets had shut, although the owners describe it as a restructuring rather than a final exit. Woolworths, Mr Price and Game all left Nigeria before it. In Kenya, the collapse of Nakumatt, Uchumi and Tuskys opened the door for the chains that are now growing.
Carrefour, operated in East Africa by Majid Al Futtaim, is the exception that proves the rule. It has expanded to 34 stores in Kenya, but by moving into neighbourhood locations and competing directly with the local chains on their own terms.
The reasons the others struggled are familiar to anyone who has worked in these markets. Large mall-based stores carry high rents and run on diesel generators when the grid fails. Weak roads and ports make it hard to keep shelves stocked, especially with fresh produce. Currency swings make imported goods expensive and planning difficult. Shoppers favour fresh, local products and buy in small quantities, often with credit from a trader they know. And the competition is not just other supermarkets but open markets and corner shops that are cheaper, closer and more flexible.
In my own work across the continent, one reason stands out that is often overlooked: the power of the wholesaler. Wholesalers sit at the centre of the informal trade, supplying thousands of small shops, market traders and kiosks, and above all extending them credit. A shopkeeper who can take stock today and pay at the end of the week, or after the weekend, has every reason to stay loyal to that wholesaler. A supermarket cannot match that relationship. It sells for cash, to individual shoppers, and has no way of offering the trust-based credit that keeps the traditional trade running.
Why informal retail still dominates
For all the growth in supermarkets, informal retail still accounts for well over 70% of purchases of food, drink and personal care in most African markets, according to The Economist’s 2023 estimate. Even in South Africa, where supermarkets take most FMCG spending, NielsenIQ found traditional trade grew much faster than modern trade in 2025.
The reasons have not changed. The corner shop is a few steps away, opens when people need it, sells in the small quantities a daily budget allows, and often extends credit to regular customers. Open markets offer fresh produce at prices supermarkets struggle to match. For most households, the supermarket is a weekly or monthly trip, if that, while the local shop is visited every day.
The Economist’s article also pointed to a shift in how analysts define Africa’s consumers: by what households own, such as a fridge or a phone, rather than by income alone. On that basis, the analytics firm Fraym estimated a consumer class of around 330 million people. That is a large market, but most of it still shops informally.
The pull of smaller towns
One of the most useful points in The Economist’s piece was demographic. Around 200 million Africans live in towns of 30,000 to 300,000 people, more than live in cities of over 3 million. These towns are often overlooked by retailers and suppliers focused on capitals and big commercial hubs.
The retailers doing well have noticed. Marketsquare started in Yenagoa, not Lagos. Quickmart and Naivas are pushing into secondary cities such as Eldoret, Nakuru and Kakamega.
Jumia’s turnaround makes the same point. Once billed as the Amazon of Africa, it has since left South Africa, Tunisia and Algeria to focus on its strongest markets. Its growth now comes from what it calls “upcountry”: secondary cities and rural areas reached through a network of pickup stations. By early 2026, more than 60% of its orders came from outside the main urban centres.
What it means for suppliers
For manufacturers and brands, the supermarket revolution is real but partial, and it changes the route to market rather than replacing it.
The growing local chains are becoming important key accounts. They want reliable supply, competitive terms and products sized for their customers, and many are building their own distribution centres, which shifts how goods reach their stores. Winning shelf space with them is now a priority in markets such as Kenya and Egypt.
But most volume will still move through traditional trade for years to come. That means the distributor and wholesaler network, small pack sizes, and frequent deliveries to small shops remain central. The companies that do best will run both channels side by side, with different pack sizes, pricing and service for each, rather than betting on one.
Finally, look beyond the capital. Secondary cities and large towns are where both modern and informal retail are growing fastest, and where coverage gaps are often greatest.
A revolution on local terms
Africa’s supermarket revolution is happening, but not in the way many expected a decade ago. It is being led by home-grown chains and discounters that start small, stay close to their customers and grow outward from secondary cities, while global brands that arrived with big-box formats have mostly retreated. Alongside them, the corner shop and the open market remain where most Africans do most of their shopping.
Private equity and development finance have followed the winners, backing chains such as Kazyon and Quickmart. For suppliers, the lesson is to serve both worlds well: build strong relationships with the fast-growing local chains, and keep investing in the traditional trade that still carries most of the volume.
First published November 2023. Updated October 2026.
To discuss your route to market in African retail, contact TSCL.
